If trend forecasting is the next big thing, the industry should already know it. While it’s not a new concept, the announcement made by media group Emap earlier this year that its trend analysis business WGSN generated revenues of £40 million in 2010, up 5 per cent on the previous year, suggests that it’s a growing sector. Organisations and brands are increasingly relying on data that predicts industry trends over the coming 18 months.

Steve Mugridge is CEO of market research company Onalytica, which uses data from online conversations to provide insight into brands, products and topics.

He believes that the creative industries are ‘leading the way’ in the use of trend forecasting. ‘They’re very interested in the reaction to what they’re putting out. Visual products will get debate going but equally you can use the data to move corporate reputation or brand,’ he says.

Mugridge insists that its own methodology is proven, providing evidence-based insight to clients. One of its metrics is the scientific measure of influence. ‘I’m not talking about popularity or who is generating noise. We weigh up the various online conversations that are happening about a specific topic or brand and who is influential. We identify the group of people that sway the opinions of the masses,’ he explains.

While it seems entirely possible to talk up a trend, the ability to manipulate online debate is useful for companies, as Mugridge argues.

‘Rather than reacting to a trend, companies can steer it in the direction they want. Smaller organisations, whose brands are not quite so prominent, can use forecasting to find out where their industry is going and what is important to the customer segment they’re trying to target.’

See also: Online reviews – The real-time voice of the customer